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An AI Future Without Whips
Why the AI Buildout will operate by new rules.
The AI Capex boom will not crash like past bullwhip cycles because there are less inventory buffers and they have moved from component stockrooms to finished racks. Custom silicon and LTAs shift the throttle point back to foundry wafer starts, giving the rest of the electronic component and semiconductor industry a full quarter to adjust production before order cuts land. Downstream circular financing and residual value guarante
Aug 288 min read


A GaNsta's Paradise
Scavenging Through the Valley of Death
How onsemi took a $20 million option on a stranded GaN capability, and why the AI market and the substrate ecosystem will likely decide whether it pays off.
Jul 812 min read


The New Logic of Supply Chain Sovereignty
To ensure its supply chain keeps pace with the growing volume demand and pace of technology change, Nvidia is assuming the financial risk of a vertically integrated manufacturer without the control of owning the plants.
Component suppliers that have the right technologies for the AI buildout should take note and move quickly: extract returns upfront, protect institutional knowledge, pursue diversification, and quarantine AI financials from the rest of the business.
Mar 269 min read
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